Trump’s Middle East

What might be in store for the roiling region

“Those who have knowledge don’t predict,” wrote Lao Tzu, “and those who predict don’t have knowledge.” The IDF invasion of Lebanon was written on the Wailing Wall, but the recent ceasefire seems astonishing given Hezbollah’s perceived power — overturned within days by exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, and the most concentrated bombing since WWII.

The entire balance of power across the Middle East has shifted, and with it regional strategies moving into the upcoming Trump 2.0 administration. At the top of the transformation is the weakening of Iran, demonstrated through the effectiveness of Israel’s missile defense systems, and the neutralization of all Tehran’s proxies except for the Houthis in the south.

Netanyahu’s government has as a consequence never been more powerful, another jawdropper considering their abject failure to foresee, prevent, and respond to the October 7th attacks. Gaza in ruins, Hamas decapitated, Hezbollah shattered and forced to pull back, Iran’s leverage is diminished to the point its ambassador met with and is kissing Elon Musk’s ass.

That said, enter the second reign of President Donald Trump, who proved the effectiveness of realpolitik in the region with his Abraham Accords of 2020 between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain. Rejecting the decades-long, failed US policy of trying to placate all players while pissing off everyone, Mike Pompeo and his team openly chose sides, and got something done.

By unabashedly siding with the Sunni side of the Arab street, the post-neo con GOP strategists not only forged the first lasting peace deal between Israel and some of its neighbors, but extended an olive branch to Saudi Arabia, with whom an unprecedented security deal is pending, and likely to be reactivated and implemented as Trump again takes office.

The losers in all this have been the Palestinians and Iran, precipitating Sinwar’s asymmetrical strategy of triggering the IDF to over-react to October 7th, and Tehran’s proxies in the north and south to go apeshit. In lieu of expectations, the sudden and surprise collapse of Hezbollah, escalation to a major multifront war seemed imminent and inevitable.

“It’s tough to make predictions,” said Yogi Berra, “especially about the future.” With Iran now on the defensive, and Trump returning to power, the prospect for a new power dynamic looms large, and one that points more toward peace, than war. Nobody is happier about these developments than MBS, who awaits a nuclear reactor from the US, and Iran on its knees.

The wild card is, as usual, the Palestinians, who, as a result of Hamas’ and Hezbollah’s defeat, have lost their leverage. Despite thousands of Muslim Americans in Dearborn, Michigan, helping to move the state +7 for Trump, the prospects for an actual Two-State Solution seem farther than ever before as the US-Israeli-Saudi-UAE-Bahrain pact expands regardless.

Questions become: Will Trump put guardrails on Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank? (No.) Will the plight of the Palestinians outweigh the economic and military benefits of the Abrahamic Alliance? (No.) Will Iran continue to agitate Israel and Saudi Arabia at the risk of further weakening its already compromised hand? (No.) So what comes next, Big Picture?

Current force strengths remaining constant — another naive assumption, because they never do — looks like Saudi Arabia will get nuked-up before Iran is ever given such a chance, while Israel will retain control of Gaza and continue to expand their illegal West Bank settlements, further marginalizing the already pummelled, increasingly desperate Palestinians.

Will Israel learn its lessons? Highly unlikely, when do winners ever concede to the vanquished — unless, such as after the defeat of Nazi Germany, America helped rebuild most of Europe. The Sunni world playing ball, safe to expect some concessions made to the losing Palestinians, including a rebuilt Gaza, Trump & Company cashing in, big time.

Had Harris won this November, Biden’s feeble and ineffective Middle East foreign policy would have sputtered along. Now that Trump’s back in the Oval Office, expect the new reign of American Oligarchs to call the shots. The good news is all signs point to increased stability in the region, albeit at the cost of breathtaking corruption, and disheartening inequality.