Why Israel Will Soon Invade Lebanon
5 reasons why a wider war could be looming
Yesterday the IDF announced their withdrawal from Gaza, leaving only one brigade. Pundits speculate that at the six-month mark, the army needs to rest, the Israeli economy needs to recharge, and the assault on Rafah will eventually happen, but not until this rest and regroup.
Following such a sudden military pullout from Gaza is the dangling prospect of a ceasefire in exchange for hostage release. Whether or not that happens is irrelevant to the broader strategies dictating the entire theatre of war, which since October 7th has already flared across multiple fronts.
Despite the long odds, alongside the high probability of catastrophic results, I think Netanyahu and his extremist government withdrew these forces to prepare for the next phase of the war: an all-out attack against Hezbollah along the southern Lebanese border. Here are 5 reasons why:
- As of March 2024, more than 130,000 Israelis have been displaced from northern Galilee due to the impact of and vulnerability for more Hezbollah rocket attacks. Daily skirmishes continue of varying intensity, and Israel has declared they will no longer tolerate status quo.
- The IDF continues to target and kill Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon, and their Iranian leadership as far away as Damascus. Israel and the US are already preparing for retaliation from Tehran, speculating that a direct strike circumventing proxies is even likely.
- Although senior Hamas leadership remains intact within Rafah tunnels and Doha highrises, the decimation of Gaza has neutralized the imminent threat to Israel. Pausing hostilities in the south is possible, freeing up the IDF to shift their attention to a spring Lebanese offensive.
- The longevity of the Netanyahu government is contingent on the war continuing, with an intrinisic benefit to its expansion. By putting Gaza “on pause,” an impossible victory becomes a deferred assault — and by attacking Lebanon another imminent disaster keeps Bibi in power.
- Many within Israel consider the core problem to be Iran, not Gaza, and the time is “now or never” to at least delay Tehran’s nuclear program. An invasion of Lebanon against Hezbollah will likely trigger Iran, precipitating direct US involvement, too. Gaza might be just the start.
Conspiracy theories abound, many of them just that — misinformation used as propaganda. Yet the express desire to attack Iran from the Israeli right, and neo-cons in the States, suggests war drums are pounding. Terrified of Iran’s ever-shrinking nuclear timeline, Israel has an ideal chance to act.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been fueled by the close proximity and high population density of a fragmented Israel, smaller than New Jersey. Oscillating cycles of violence have culminated in the current regional disaster, bad things only to get worse without any change in strategy.
With the ultimate goal of neutralizing or at least significantly delaying Tehran’s capabilities, checkmate for Netanyahu is a major war against Iran — further motivated by the vulnerability of Israel’s current leadership. His next move after decimating Gaza is to invade Lebanon. I hope I am wrong.
Addendum
Sadly, I was right — Israel invaded Lebanon seven months after this blog was posted, on Oct 1, 2024:
And here’s a collection of my posts on the Middle East conflict…
