Why Hamas Doesn’t Want a Ceasefire During Ramadan
Palestinian children killed by the IDF during the holy month is manna from heaven for Hamas
Ramadan is the annual commemoration of Muhammad’s first revelation, lasts from one sighting of the crescent moon to the next, and is regarded as one of the Five Pillars of Islam. Beginning this Sunday, March 10th, the optics of Israel inflicting Palestinian civilan casualties throughout this sacred time could not be more powerful — and damning.
That’s why Hamas, already successful at using the principles of asymmetrical information warfare against Israel, does not want a ceasefire now. The October 7th attack was designed to lure the IDF into bombing and then invading Gaza with 100x retaliatory fury, Hamas knowing that the predictable Israel over-reaction would help Palestinians win the info war.
And win it they already have, the Middle East transformed. Marginalized throughout the Israeli/Saudi security deal, now indefinitely on hold; supported by Qatari money and Netanyahu’s tacit approval, Hamas has killed the most Jews since the Holocaust; recently stabilizing, the Lebanese border, West Bank, and Straight of Hormuz are now roiling in conflict.
Osama Bin Laden’s goal was to trigger the United States into over-reacting following a major terrorist attack on American soil, thereby building local sympathy for his jihadism, and ultimately getting the Yankees to go home once and for all. The attacks of 9/11 exceeded his wildest dreams, the US responding with two major wars lasting decades that we ultimately lost.
Everyone now agrees that the resulting Iraq War succeeded only in making the country a suburb of Iran, and the Afghan War in reinstalling the Taliban — after thousands of lives lost, and trillions of dollars spent. Aside from a marginal presence in Kurdistan and the Syrian border, US forces have left the Middle East, Bin Laden now celebrating with his 72 virgins.
Hamas applied the same strategy on October 7th, Israel so far destroying 85% of Gaza, and killing 1% of its entire population. Hamas remains a compromised but intact fighting force, while minute-by-minute TikTok feeds viscerally share images and videos of Palestinian children crushed and dismembered by American made and sponsored, Israeli munitions.
The IDF is poised to “finish the job” in Rafah, while Hamas knows they have never been more popular in Gaza, throughout the occupied territories, and across the world. What could have been a post-October 7th opportunity for reflection and evolution for Israel, became a predictably brutal, vengeful, self-defeating bloodbath, broadcast for all to see.
Netanyahu has vowed to launch his Rafah ground assault by Ramadan if the hostages aren’t freed, and Hamas is pleased to oblige him. Not only will such a horrific military operation not win the war, but its inevitable destruction to the Palestinian civilian population and infrastructure will be televised across the planet —and exacerbated 100x by the sacred holiday.
The overall result will be a completely decimated Gaza, surviving Hamas militants absorbed into the further enraged civilian population, and a years’ long insurgency stretching from one end of the strip to the other. With no endgame in sight, Netanyahu will then likely shift his attention to an invasion of southern Lebanon, endless war endlessly continuing…
The curve of Israel’s failing strategy is asymptotic, and time is running out. Military responses of 1948, 1967, 1973… are no longer effective, as all of its regional enemies have exponentially gained in strength and influence. American support is also beginning to fracture, Israel unable to “go it alone” without activating a sincere and patient path toward lasting peace.
Yes, Hamas has to go, the Palestinians needing new leadership — just as Netanyahu and his cronies also need to be removed. Israel is headed toward disaster by a shameless opportunist whose failed leadership fractured Israeli society, built up its enemies, and exposed the country to the worst attack since its founding. If not now, when? And where is Biden?
The tragic irony in all this is Netanyahu doesn’t want a ceasefire, either. With the goal of “destroying Hamas,” he can’t and won’t stop now. So with neither side actually wanting the current negotiations to succeed, the victims will be thousands of Palestinian civilians, and more than a hundred Israeli hostages, whose chances for survival diminish every agonizing day.
