The Sleeping Lion has Awoken, Yet Continues to Dream
The 5 traps set by Hamas and how Israel fell into them
Mirror, Mirror
I could go on and on about the theocratic mafia that is Hamas, but I won’t for two reasons: 1) The power is now in Israel’s hands to decide where to take this war; and 2) I am a first generation Hungarian-Jewish American, and therefore feel the need and justification to criticize my own.
Lest you label me a self-loathing Jew, or delusional progressive American liberal, trust me, I’m neither. Instead, I try to objectively understand the current conflict through the lens of optimal political, military, and cultural strategy, having the best interests of my people — all people — in mind.
My opinions are also shared by pundits ranging from Fareed Zakaria to Ian Bremmer to Thomas Friedman. If you consider them biased against Israel or blowhard talking heads, then those aren’t the droids, and this isn’t the blog post, you’re looking for — move along. I’m not here to “convince” you.
That said, the simplest way to interpret the Middle East War of 2023 is that Israel continues falling into every trap set by Hamas. I’ll describe each trap, and Israel’s predictable yet non-inevitable plummet into it. The exercise is frustrating and depressing, but gaining understanding is the key to hope for a new path ahead.
Hamas Trap #1: “Don’t Worry About Us, the West Bank is Your Real Focus”
The Israeli desire for a two-state solution, and US efforts to help facilitate it, are lies. Giving the Palestinians autonomy over their own destiny, and the status of legitimate statehood, amounts to enabling and encouraging them to create their own army, which Israel considers an existential threat.
To prevent Palestinian statehood from happening, Israel has pursued two distinct yet connected strategies: 1) Continue building and defending illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank, and 2) Supporting the internal rivalry between Hamas in Gaza, and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.
Israel’s two-pronged approach was designed to provoke the PA, and appease Hamas. Palestinians dying in the West Bank for years, Hamas played nice with Israel, to the point Netanyahu, despite warnings from his own intelligence services, no longer deemed them a credible threat.
Taking the bait: Netanyahu’s strategy resulted in a military buildup in the West Bank, and a military reduction along the southern border with Gaza. While Bibi fragmented and distracted Israeli society with “judicial reform” and built illegal settlements, Hamas planned and openly rehearsed their unprecedented attack.
Hamas Trap #2: Remain Mute While Israel Marginalizes the Palestinians
Prior to the now-historic October 7th attack, Israel and Saudi Arabia were on the brink of signing a milestone security deal. An extension of Trump’s monumental Abrahamic Accords that normalized relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, this next phase profoundly freaked out Iran.
To hint at the deal’s significance, it included a provision where the US would build a nuclear facility on Saudi soil. Bad enough that the Sunni Arab states were hedging their regional bets with the Jewish State, but paving a road for the Kingdom to nuke itself up was obviously a reactor too far.
In parallel, Netanyahu was operating off the assumption that peace in the Middle East would be possible — actually facilitated — by completely ignoring the Palestinians. Making peace with the Sunni Arabs was supposed to make peace with the Palestinians. Hamas winked, waiting.
Taking the bait: Israel went ahead with their Saudi negotiations as if the Palestinians didn’t exist, and Hamas didn’t care. One mistake fed the other lie: Confident his strategy was working, Netanyahu further took his eyes off the Gaza court, which never changed the rules, but was getting better at playing the game.
Hamas Trap #3: Attack with ISIS Brutality to Ensure Israeli Overreaction
The goals of Hamas have never changed: 1) Annihilate Israel, and 2) Create a Palestinian Islamist theocracy. Attaining them involves intermediary steps, of which slamming the Palestinian cause back on the map is first on the list. Icing on the cake is existentially weakening Israel while doing so.
Operation “Al Aqsa Storm” no doubt exceeded the wildest expectations of its sinistral planners. Designed to remind the entire region that peace is impossible without direct Palestinian involvement, the savage attack also paradoxically triggered global anti-Zionist rage and virulent antisemitism.
Hamas understood the consequences of their attack, namely 1,000x Israeli retaliation. By infusing their invasion with ISIS-level depravity, they obviously wanted Israel to do what Israel has always done — kill lots and lots of Palestinian civilians who are in the way of killing lots and lots of Hamas.
Taking the bait: Fueled by the carnal rage of seeing Israeli civilians beheaded, burned, and tortured, with over two hundred hostages taken, the IDF has bombed and invaded Gaza like never before. The Palestinian civilian death toll is 11K and counting, Hamas benefitting from every dead Israeli — and Palestinian.
Hamas Trap #4: Pit the World Against Israel & the United States
Despite most of the planet not noticing or caring that MBS in Saudi Arabia and Assad in Syria have brutally killed and forcefully displaced millions of men, women, and children, Hamas knew everyone from American university students to the UN would cry bloody outrage about Gaza.
Hamas also knew that Israel’s wrath would know no bounds, including recklessly bombing hospitals and schools. And cry bloody outrage the world has, millions across the planet protesting against Israel/US and pro-Palestine, amid the backdrop of record levels of antisemitism and violence.
Netanyahu and the IDF can blame Hamas all they want for using civilians as “human shields,” but nobody — not even the Americans at this point — are buying it as a viable strategy or excuse. Taking out Hamas is one thing, blowing up thousands of kids is another, each one a martyr for jihad.
Taking the bait: From 1948 to 1967 to 1973, Israel’s identity has been one of perceived invincibility, reinforced by reflexive and disproportionate force. Hamas knew Israel would react as they always have, thereby ensuring the ensuing negative backlash would destroy all memories of the attack that started it.
Hamas Trap #5: Make Israel More Vulnerable Now & In the Future
Within days of the Al Aqsa Storm attack, 350,000+ Israel troops and mountains of armor assembled at the Gaza border. Of course Israel would retaliate, of course they would inflict 1,000x damage, of course thousands of Palestinian civilians would die, and of course outrage would spread.
The repercussions were equally predictable, including heightened risk of a multifront and multicountry conflict. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank haven’t officially declared war yet (likely cautioned by China, needing Iran’s oil), but the entire region dangles on a precipice.
If concerns regarding escalation aren’t bad enough for Israel, the longer-term consequences of bombing and invading Gaza with such ferocity are self-evident. For every Palestinian they now kill, a hundred more are created to continue the jihad against Israel for generations to come.
Taking the bait: The Lion of Judah has indeed awoken from its delusional Palestinian strategy and internal distractions — but its roar appeases only its own terrified citizens, and plays right into the hands of its enemies. Short term, Israelis feel empowered again; long term, they are weakened on every front.
Summary: Hamas is Winning but Israel Can Still Turn Things Around
Given that the IDF has already cut Gaza in two, encircled, laid siege, and invaded Gaza City, the claim Hamas is “winning” sounds absurd. That’s what Netanyahu wants us all to believe, but nobody is buying that, either, because Israel has never been in such peril, and arguably Jews this reviled.
The moment ripe, Hamas took the moment — and with it, the world’s attention. Setting out to trigger an Israeli over-reaction, get the Palestinians back onto front page news, lighting up the whole region, launching protests, and breeding a new generation of radicals, Hamas is #winning.
I was as certain Israel would invade as the invasion would be a mistake. Now that thousands of IDF troops are fighting street-to-street and tunnel-to-tunnel, Israel has no choice but to finish what started, one way or another. Killing fewer civilians would help, yet they keep hitting hospitals.
Stop falling prey: Easy for me to say, but Israel needs to calm down, lick its wounds, get its own house in order: Get rid of Netanyahu, fortify its borders, hold new elections, take a two-state solution seriously. The Lion is roaring in a mirror, instead needing to recreate itself into a tough but more compassionate beast.
