The Middle East Makes Everyone Crazy
Disaster is about to unfold because tribal instincts supersede common sense
Jung wrote that thinking and feeling are diametrically at odds, proven yet again by the tumultuous weltering of grief, outrage, irrationality, and illogical opinions ricocheting online regarding the Israel/Hamas war.
Most frustrating is how various aspects of the conflict are conflated, resulting in even more confusion, tribalism, and blood lust. People are citing history, culture, religion, and politics to justify decisions having nothing to do with any of these.
Clearing the noise and smoke, the question everyone needs to ask, and the answer that must be provided, is this: Should Israel launch a full scale invasion of Gaza, ostensibly with the goal of “destroying Hamas once and for all”?
For that answer to be meaningful, all arguments related to history, culture, religion, and politics need to be tabled. That’s because the decision whether or not to invade is ultimately a strategic one, with epic consequences for the world.
In other words, will an Israeli invasion of Gaza result in Israel being more secure or less secure? Will it be net-positive, for as long as can be foreseen, or will it increase the likelihood for even worse challenges, now and into the future?
Regardless which “side” you are on, an Israeli invasion of Gaza will have implications that don’t require military experts to figure out. When just about everyone does the math, based solely on these military implications, invasion spells disaster:
1) Block to block, house to house, floor to floor, room to room, tunnel to tunnel urban warfare will be necessary and inevitable
2) Given the size, population density, and topography of Gaza these battles will be worse than Fallujah, more analogous to Stalingrad
3) The fighting will therefore be long, drawn out, brutal, bloody, and shared across social media throughout the planet
4) Casualites for all the world to see will be thousands of Israeli and Hamas combatants, along with tens of thousands of civilians
5) As the conflict and carnage drag on in Gaza, the probability of a second and even a third front opening becomes astronomical
6) Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and even the Palestinian Authority will likely attack along the Lebanese border, and in the West Bank
7) Proxies of Iran, the probability of Tehran becoming directly involved in the conflict also exponentially increases
8 ) Instead of “destroying Hamas once and for all,” by invading Gaza Israel instead does Hamas’ bidding by triggering a regional conflict
The US is very much aware of this, which explains Blinken’s “shuttle diplomacy,” and Biden physically visiting Israel and patting Netanyahu on the back. These messages are for one audience: Iran.
The sailing of two US carrier fleets, calling up of 2,000 American soldiers, and redeployment of A-10 squadrons are all part of this message for Tehran: “You make a move, we all make a move.”
An all-out war could happen anyway, but the probability for it happening is exponentially increased if Israel invades Gaza, for all the reasons cited above, and no doubt many many more.
Personally, I find it discouraging and exhausting to see people from all sides of this issue frothing at the mouth about who is right, who is wrong, who is accountable, and who should be punished.
Back to Jung: What’s operating here isn’t rational thinking about actions and their consequences, but emotional reflexes to violations and vulnerabilities, driving the world to armageddon.
Sure, channel your emotions by letting it all out. Jews, Palestinians, Christians, anybody and everybody has an emotional perspective and stake in this unfolding catastrophe, and needs catharsis.
There’s no doubt a Social Darwinian basis for our tribal instincts: pre-civilization, they helped small bands of humans survive. But they are now vestigial behaviors that lead us back to the Stone Age.
The essential problem now is that feeling is diametrically opposed to thinking, and thinking is the only tool we have to minimize the impact of this Middle East mess, and prevent existential escalation.
So if you can, take a deep breath and a few steps back, and ask yourself, as impartially and honestly as you can, what the real world implications will likely be if your emotional reactions play out.
Every decision we make, personally in our lives and collectively in our societies, involves a cost vs benefit analysis. Too often, we place emotional satisfaction on the benefit side, tipping the scales.
That’s exactly what’s happening now: Most people, from every tribe, are weighing their emotional needs higher than their pragmatic and even existential ones. The result is bad decisions.
Are there alternatives? Of course. Planners on the highest levels consider all of them, but also dismiss them for the same reasons most of us froth at the mouth online: Tribalism wins over reason.
So when I keep ranting about Israel’s imminent and disastrous invasion of Gaza, I’m not expressing my own historical, cultural, religious, or political opinion. I’m simply saying it’s a baaaad idea.
Bad for whom, you ask?
1) Bad for Israel because it will precipitate a broader conflict that will ultimately weaken the country and not strengthen it
2) Bad for the Palestinians because they will bear the brunt of the bloodshed and get no closer to their hope for self-rule
3) Bad for the US because it could lead us into direct confrontation with Iran, and we saw what the Afghanistan and Iraq wars were like
And good for whom, you ask?
1) Ironically for Hamas, whose goal from the beginning was to embroil Israel in a bloody and protracted ground invasion
2) All of Israel’s enemies, who are poised to attack Israel on multiple fronts when it’s weakest and most vunlerable
3) Iran, of course, who will get pummeled but isn’t going anywhere, meanwhile the Saudi/Israeli security deal derailed, region in chaos
So go ahead and let off your tribal steam, but realize that emotions lead to actions, and actions to consquences. The rationale for an Israeli invasion of Gaza is emotional, the results disastrous.
I already know how most of you will respond to this: “Hamas must be destroyed!” or “Death to Israel!” That’s exactly what got us here, and that’s exactly what will send the whole world into the abyss.
