The Israel-Gaza Race, Gender, and Generation Gap
Who you are and when you were born influences whom you support, as American foreign policy is forced to evolve
Whether you defend Israel or Palestine today is contingent on who you are and how you’ve come to understand the regional conflict yesterday, as revealed by a recent New York Times/Siena College poll. The data reveal younger, darker, and female Americans are twice more likely to support Palestine, older, whiter males thrice more likely to support Israel.
President Biden, last we all checked, is an 81-year-old white guy, like it or not having deep implicaitons for him and the Democratic Party. As Bill Maher observed, “Uncle Joe is older than Israel,” and as such, naturally resonates best with the white, male, boomer generation of Americans who grew up with Israel and the Jews as underdogs, attacked from all sides.
To describe this apparent race and age gap, we need look no further than the eras of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which align with demographic poll results. From “Traditionalists” to Baby Boomers, Israel fought and won its existential wars of 1948, 1967, and 1973. In contrast, Gen-X, Millennials, and Gen-Z’ers grew up considering Israel as an imperial, colonial power.
Back to the poll: Boomers support Biden and Israel, because unconditional support for Israel has been a core, bipartisan tenet of American foreign policy, like, forever. But as the generational layers peel back the precedent vanishes, along with the history and culture spawning it. Once dismissed as inconsequential, younger, female, and minority voters demand change.
Such a seismic gender, race, and generational shift brings the very foundation of US policy making into question. Arab voters in swing states have already threatened to withdraw their support for Biden due to his unequivocal support for Israel, as have millions throughout the country across the progressive left. Trump might win because of October 7th.
None understand this better than Hamas, the breadth and savagery of their attacks that dreaded day designed to trigger Israel into doing what it’s always done: respond with 1,000x force. Mastering the essential strategy of assymetrical warfare, Hamas knew it could never win a military war on the ground, so it sought victory in an information war on everyone’s phone.
So far so successful for them, global public opinion overwhelmingly and vociferously anti-Israel/anti-US and antisemitic thanks to an endless TikTok stream of dying and dead Palestinian children. The shocking imagery also fuel the legacy sentiment of younger, darker, female Americans who tend to side with the underdog, seeing Israel only as an oppressive world power.
Add all this up, and for the first time in contemporary history a pillar of American foreign policy is being seriously questioned, reverberating into the looming presidential election, and beyond. Trump essentially left the Palestinians out of the Abraham Accords, but if he wins in 2024 he, too, will have no choice but to finally address some sort of two-state solution.
Brookings confirms this trend toward a more activated and impactful younger, minority, and female American electorate, begging the question of the inevitable evolution of US foriegn policy. Although this slice of the electorate tends to vote Democratic, rifts like what we now see created by the Israel-Hamas War and others like it could short circuit major elections.
In parallel, isolationist forces on the MAGA / New GOP side press for even more disruption, questioning the very essence of America’s global role in the 21st century. Such a convergence of demographics, politics, and culture within both parties suggests that these younger and no longer neglected American voices won’t stop until they create their own world order.
