The Impossibility of Hostage Negotiations in Gaza

Sadly, circumstances make any deal for their release a non-starter

When an infinite force meets an immovable body:

Hamas has ~150 hostages, no doubt strategically spread out over Gaza. Israel has vowed to annihilate Hamas, once and for all.

So how is Israel going to negotiate for the release of hostages, ostensibly held by people they have vowed to utterly destroy?

And how is Hamas going to make demands, when Israel has decided to invade with the express goal of killing them all?

The only possible answer is that Israel, despite their history, has already written off the hostages as dead, and Hamas will kill them.

As the ISIS-style torture and execution videos are released one-by-one across social media, how will Israel respond? How will the US?

Israel will become further enraged, dialing up the brutality of their invasion, further enranging the enraged Arab and broader world.

The US will have a more complex reaction, since more than 20 hostages are American citizens. Will Americans somehow get drawn into the conflict?

Atrocities from both Israel and Hamas will only heighten the chances for the war expanding to Lebanon and the West Bank.

More than a hundred thousand Israeli soldiers quagmired in Gaza will be yet another factor making a multifront/multicountry war enticing for Iran.

These and other potential implications suggest the Israeli invasion of Gaza is an intractable, net-negative military decision that should be avoided.

As war rages, don’t be fooled from either side that hostage negotiations are possible under such circumstances, or provide rationale for the incursion.

The Israeli invasion of Gaza is imminent and at this point inevitable. Israel needs to defend itself, but is now doing so on Hamas’ terms, not theirs.

Hamas knew Israel would react exactly this way, is ready and waiting, eager to enage on their home turf. The worst of the worst is only yet to come…