The Imminent Rafah Assault Won’t End the Gaza War
Why the next phase of the invasion will only be the end of the beginning — and not the beginning of end
Here’s a Q&A to provide context and help understand an otherwise complicated and confusing unfolding disaster in the Middle East:
Q.: Why did Hamas attack Israel on October 7th with the expansiveness and savagery they knew would trigger the IDF into their typical 100x retaliatory response? No doubt precipitating the bombing and invasion of Gaza?
A.: Because that’s exactly the type of response Hamas wanted. At an obvious military disadvantage, Hamas utilized the proven strategy of asymmetric warfare to win the only kind of war they could, that of information.
Q.: What does information have to do with victory on the ground? The IDF has so far destroyed over 85% of Gaza, and killed 1% of the population, with over 90% displaced. By any objective standard Hamas is losing.
A.: Today’s standard is not based on traditional metrics. Instead, consider global outrage since Israel’s retaliation, triggered by social media sharing of its visceral consequences. Hamas is winning in the court of public opinion.
Q.: So what? Israel has been reviled by most of the world since its founding, and antisemitism is the globe’s favorite sport after soccer. If Israel based its military actions on what the world thought, it would no longer exist.
A.: That was then, this is now — An information ecosystem has since evolved that streams battlefield content onto the phones of billions of people. Dead and wounded Palestinian kids have become more powerful than rockets.
Q.: But doesn’t the impact of social media work both ways? Shocking images and videos from the October 7th attacks have similarly saturated everyone’s feeds, and have further motivated the Israelis to do what they had to do.
A.: Israel had their chance to gain much of the world’s empathy and support immediately following the attacks thanks to those posts, but just as quickly lost it after their relentless bombing started killing Palestinians.
Q.: So what? Over eleven hundred Israelis were butchered in the worst single day of atrocities against Jews since the Holocaust. The proven strategy of retaliating with 100x force strength has kept Israel alive.
A.: That was then, this is now — for decades since its founding, Israel was the underdog in the Middle East, struggling for survival. Now Israel is perceived as a major power in the region, and as such, an imperial bully.
Q.: Again, who cares? Israel is a Western-style democracy and culture, with liberal values. They are surrounded by Islamist enemies vowing to destroy them. In that region only power talks, bullshit walks. It’s kill, or be killed.
A.: Such binary thinking has resulted in endless cycles of violence, getting Israel into this mess. Long term peace deemed impossible, they have opted to periodically “mow the lawn,” the current war yet another such exercise.
Q.: What other choice does Israel have? Arab-Israeli Wars of 1948, 1967, 1973, 1982, 2006… Then the “peace accords,” Camp David, Oslo, on and on… No wonder Netanyahu gave up. Negotiations proved hopeless.
A.: The two sides see these events very differently, but a few facts are incontrovertible: Israel and the Jews, Palestine and the Arabs, each with a population of about seven million, are there to stay. so must make peace.
Q.: Why put the onus on Israel? Thousands died in the recurring wars and infitadas, while this “incontrovertible” fact remains: Israel won all those wars, and the Palestinians lost. They must deal with the consequences.
A.: That attitude begs the question of the ongoing instability, strife, and suffering throughout the region. Giving up on negotiations, continuing to build illegal West Bank settlements, moving the capital to Jerusalem —
Q.: Why do you insist on blaming the victim? Israel gave Sinai back to Egypt, left Lebanon, left Gaza — and what have they gotten in return? Terror attacks, rocket fire, and after encouraging calm with Hamas, October 7th?
A.: Netanyahu encouraged the rift between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority to preclude a two-state solution. He also polarized Israeli society to distraction, and left the Gaza border exposed to protect the West Bank.
Q.: Mistakes were made, but what does any of this have to do with the need — long overdue — to destroy Hamas? Bad for Israel, bad for the Palestinians, they won’t go down without a fight to the death, and that’s what they got.
A.: What Hamas has got so far is victory: The Saudi-Israeli security deal is halted, northern Israel is evacuated, the West Bank is in turmoil, international shipping is disrupted, Palestinians are again front page news.
Q.: How does any of this impact the long-term security of Israel? The Saudis will return after the smoke clears, if Hezbollah wants all-out war they’ll get it, the settlers are there to stay, and the US and allies are already in action.
A.: Thanks to shifting public opinion, Israel is slowly losing support. The American electorate is changing, and Biden might even lose if the war continues. Unconditional US support for Israel is becoming conditional.
Q.: You don’t think Israel will go it alone? As the world chooses between Russia, China, and Iran vs America, NATO, and Israel, the US needs Israel as much as Israel needs the US. Even the Saudis get it, why don’t you?
A.: Meanwhile the crisis in Gaza, the Lebanese border, West Bank, and Straight of Hormuz are getting worse. The risk of the war expanding is increasing, and Hamas still retains over two-thirds of its force strength.
And here’s why all the above factors suggest that the imminent IDF ground assault of Rafah in Gaza’s south is also beneficial for Hamas:
Q.: War is war, and Israel has a job to do. Don’t you admit that the Rafah attack is a sign that the IDF is winning in Gaza? They have pushed Hamas from the north to the south, the terrorists having nowhere left to go.
A.: The 1.4 million Palestinian civilians pushed from north to south have nowhere left to go, either. Netanyahu calls for their evacuation, but to where? And what’s to preclude the militants from entering the population?
Q.: Wasn’t I the one asking the questions? Let’s continue. I’ll answer you, adding another question: Nothing — and, so what? Hamas has always been interspersed with the civilian population, human shields is their strategy.
A.: Indeed, which is why Israel will continue to lose the information war. Unable to finally “destroy Hamas” in Rafah, the IDF ground invasion will transform into a Hamas insurgency back up and throughout all of Gaza.
Q.: Why do you assume Israel can’t completely neutralize Hamas? Look what they’ve done in Gaza City and Khan Younis. The reason they must now attack Rafah is because that area is the last stand of Hamas. They are done.
A.: Dream on. Not only will the attack itself be horrific and livestreamed, IDF casualties also mounting, but the idea of Hamas will flourish and grow alongside the thousands of militants who will transition into a guerilla war.
Q.: What else can Israel possibly do to protect itself? “Palestine from the River to the Sea” is its enemies’ goal, a land devoid of Jews, either through extermination or expulsion. The Arabs will settle for nothing less, ever.
A.: I’m no expert, but reasonable to assume killing tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians and destroying most of Gaza livestreamed on TikTok ain’t gonna help. The Gaza Squid Games continue, Israel the big loser.
Q.: As the great Hillel is often quoted, “if not now, when?” Hamas started this war October 7th, and now is the time to finish all of Israel’s enemies, once and for all: Hamas, Hezbollah, and hopefully, Iran and its nukes.
A.: Yes, Israel does indeed want a wider war. But they also know that without the active involvement of the US, they won’t be able to militarily postpone Iran’s nuke program, and can’t simultaneously invade Lebanon.
Q.: Don’t you agree that the Houthis must be stopped, too? The US has already endured casualties, and directly attacked Syria and Yemen. The disruption of world shipping is unacceptable. The world is already at war.
A.: Yes, the Red Sea must be free. The only way to calm down the entire region, though, is for Gaza to calm down. Escalating an already disastrous invasion by attacking Rafah is the coup de grâce of this clustefuck.
Q.: What’s the alternative? A cease fire might help get some of the hostages back, but will give time and resources for Hamas to regroup and further entrench. They have vowed to continue their attacks until Israel is gone.
A.: Israel isn’t going anywhere, and the Palestinians aren’t going anywhere. Instead of killing Palestinian civilians and leveling Gaza, Israel needs to fortify its borders, and stop building illegal settlements in the West Bank.
Q.: Then what? The Palestinians are savages, as they displayed on October 7th, and a two-state solution is impossible, as proven by endless failed attempts to negotiate one. All that Israel can do is fight to stay alive.
A.: Have you been on Instagram and TikTok lately? Palestinian propaganda is retweeting Israeli propaganda, showing all sorts of IDF nastiness in Gaza. Revenge has become its own executioner, savagery begetting savagery.
Q.: How can you indulge such false equivalence? Look at Israel and its progressive society, its economic success. Look at the Palestinians and their Islamist oppression and squalor. Gaza should be a beach resort!
A.: The cat can chase its own tail forever, both sides playing victim and blaming the other, and history continuously rewriting itself. None of that changes the current reality of millions suffering, the region about to blow.
Q.: Then why don’t you accept my essential point? Hamas must be destroyed, full stop. To accomplish that necessary goal, the IDF must kill every Hamas terrorist that it can, full stop. They have retreated to Rafah.
A.: For decades, Israel’s strategy has been to do everything it could to avoid or prevent Palestinian Statehood, while ensuring relative peace and stability with 100x retaliation. The current disaster is the end result.
Q.: So why not continue that strategy, since Israel has survived to implement it, ultimately proving its effectiveness? Until the Palestinians accept their fate as losers of these wars, the surrounding Sunni states will make peace.
A.: Even MBS is feeling pressure, the Israel-Saudi security deal on hold. Hamas has won because thanks to October 7th— with extra help from the IDF bombing and invasion — the Palestinians will be central to every deal.
Q.: Then what’s the alternative to decimating Hamas, and if necessary, most of Gaza? Even if Hamas has again made the Palestinians relevant, Israel will never negotiate or even accept the existence of Hamas.
A.: Four things need so happen: The Palestinians must install new leadership and accept 22% of the land, while Israel must cede the West Bank and commit to a two-state solution. Until then, don’t invade Rafah.
Q.: You know they’re going to attack soon, right?
A.: As inevitable as the invasion has been brutal.
Q.: We finally agree.
A.: Sadly so…
