The Coming Middle East Cataclysm
Why the worst is soon to come, and a broader war is tragically avoidable
Israel seems to be marinating northern Gaza for the inevitable land invasion, a sign they obviously sense what’s in store.
As airstrikes, pinpoint attacks, and commando raids continue, the world waits, especially Israel’s enemies.
Meanwhile US interests are being attacked, the whole region gearing up for escalation.
Biden gave Bibi hugs on TV to ostensibly quell Iran, show them who’s the Big Boss, but I’m not sure that worked.
If nothing else, it heightened Arab rage throughout the region, which is at a tipping point.
Regardless which side you’re on, which ideology, history, or religion you espouse, the road ahead is driving toward disaster.
Personally, I think broader escalation can be avoided, and Israel’s safety better assured, with a different path.
Many are comparing Hamas to ISIS, justified given October 7th, but destroying them requires a new strategy.
Epic sacrifices have repeatedly been made throughout history to win wars, resulting in tremendous destruction.
People cite the allied bombing of Germany (a failure) and Japan (a failure until the nukes) as precedents.
Millions died from collateral damage, tough shit some say, that was the only way to win decisively and unconditionally.
The Israel Hamas War raging now isn’t analogous though, because Israel is simply too vulnerable.
When major powers go mano-a-mano, they’re still more or less intact after the smoke clears.
Israel, smaller than Massachusetts, will be existentially threatened by a two, likely three front war.
If the Middle East is already about to boil over, imagine what will happen when Israel invades Gaza.
Live streamed on social media, the Palestinian suffering will trigger Hezbollah to act.
The West Bank, already roiling, will also likely explode, multiple fronts closing in.
Missiles could fly into Israel cities, settlements and borders overrun, a tiny nation in extreme peril.
Israel has nuclear weapons, and if existentially threatened, they will use them.
To try and mitigate that reality, the US will have to intervene, precipitating a potential You Know What.
I understand Israel’s dilemma, forced to rebuild confidence in their power, and assure its own people they are safe.
But the foreseeable cost and potential worldwide risks of a full scale incursion into Gaza are too high.
Some say, on both sides, and with bravado, that the time has come to finish what was started seventy years ago.
There’s many good reasons, however, why for decades these chonic challenges have progressively worsened.
And there’s even more reasons why these problems haven’t been solved, and have led to this dire moment.
In all aspects of life, compromises are made, because the alternative is annihilation, personal and societal.
Israel is surveying the situation, planning its next moves, which is better than reactively acting.
But I worry this period is relative calm before the worst storm since the end of World War II.
We’re soon going to find out what happens when an infinite force collides with an immovable body.
When an untenable situation spawns intractable problems that only chaos can render inert.
Hindsight is 20/20, but what all major wars share is their tragic preventability.
Whatever happens in the next few weeks and months can be averted. It doesn’t have to be this way.
#holdyourbreath #israelhamaswar
