Sticking My Neck Out for a Big Kamala Win
Part Wishful Thinking & Part Sound Strategic Reasoning
2 min readNov 4, 2024
Since I’m not shy about making predictions — or about much of anything else — here’s mine for Election Day tomorrow:
HARRIS WILL WIN BY LARGER MARGINS THAN THE POLLS SUGGEST
Rationale
- American women of all ages and political disposition are afraid, angry, and activated by the rescission of Roe
- The polls already show a 30-point divide between genders and this single critical issue drives the wedge for females
- Educated women vote more than uneducated men by even higher margins so turnout will again be decisive
- The postmortem on this election cycle will reveal that these women will decisively win the election for Harris
Inaccurate Polls
- I have a hunch the polls are over-compensating for prior mistakes and are over-counting the disaffected Trump base
- Conversely the polls are under-counting younger females who are voting for the first time and stampeding to the booth
Tired Trump
- As I’ve posted before I sense the electorate is becoming either hyper-charged or exhausted by the Trump Brand
- Despite being associated with the Biden years Harris “new” in the sense of taking on the mantle of the Presidency
- Americans choose the bright shiny new brand over the old brand and this election is no different regardless the noise
Bottom Line
- The election is far less close than the polls lead us to believe
- Harris will win by a significant spread — maybe 292 to 246
Global Consequences
- Enormous and the subject of more posts…
Personal Consequences
- If I’m right then kiss my ass
- If I’m wrong then read my Sexless Marriage post again on Medium
Action
- Let’s gooooooooooooooooooooooo!
More opinions…
