Playing a Losing Game in the Middle East

All bets are off as emotional impulsiveness and bad strategy lead to ruin

Great poker players trigger the hell out of their opponents, do whatever it takes to compel emotional, not rational, responses.

Daniel Negreanu, one of the world’s best, teases and taunts players, making them angry at him, or concluding that he’s an idiot.

“Have you guys been to the buffet?” he asks, 2 million dollars in the pot. “The chicken cacciatore tonight is OUT OF THIS WORLD!”

Hamas has gone full ISIS in Israel, and the Israelis, understandably, want blood in return. They are about to start a land invasion.

Like Bin Laden, the goal of Hamas is escalation. Israel’s response to last weekend will be as bad as America’s response to 9/11.

In the US, both sides are frothing at the mouth. Chicago’s BLM group, Starbuck’s union, Harvard express support of Palestinians.

Millions march in support of Israel, as Biden declares unambiguous, complete alliance. Everyone is emotional, most are tribal.

In parallel, pundits like Sam Harris decry lack of moral equivalence between theocratic ideologue terrorists and the rest of civilization.

What’s lost in all this noise is pragmatic strategic thinking, and the need for a completely utilitarian Realpolitik throughout the region.

Citing history, morality, ethics is all a waste of time. He said, she said, who gives a shit what was or is being said or believed.

The Israeli strategy of periodically “mowing the lawn” in Gaza has obviously not worked. Where else could it possibly lead?

The Hamas strategy of triggering Israel to the point of launching a full scale ground invasion of Gaza HAS worked, the tanks rolling…

What will it actually accomplish? The risks are enormous: Opening up a two- or three-front war, killing thousands more Israelis.

And how can Israel possibly kill every Hamas fighter and leader? And what will happen in Gaza on their way to trying to do so?

Do you think bombing, bulldozing, invading, and killing tens of thousands of Gaza residents will turn them into “good neighbors”?

Doing the same thing over and over again is an indicator of insanity. Hamas is insane, but so is Israel. Here we go again.

Instead, diplomacy and negotiations need to happen. That starts with at least talking to each other, opening communication.

I never understood the argument that Israel can’t negotiate with people who don’t believe they should exist, want them destroyed.

So what? Talk to them anyway. Israel isn’t going anywhere. The Palestinians aren’t going anywhere. Who cares what they “think”?

Here’s an analogous geopolitical clusterfuck: Cuba. After Castro won, we should have accepted his victory and moved on.

Instead, we tried to invade, and when that failed, we cut them off. All that did was welcome in the Soviets, almost trigger WWIII.

I bet Castro wouldn’t have made it a decade with open borders, free trade, and a willingness on our part to play ball.

The Arabs need to own up. So do the Jews. I truly believe we need “Zionism 2.0” — an entirely new and refreshed look at all this.

That would include honoring boundaries (stop building settlements in the West Bank), and re-evaluating Palestinian-Israeli realities.

I obviously have no “solutions,” but an untenable situation is now intolerable. At the very least, old strategies must be abandoned.

“Flatten Gaza!” “Death to Israel!” Round and round. Fast forward a year: Both sides will be back to where they started. Rinse, repeat.

The biggest problem is that these recurring cycles of violence continue to exponentially escalate. Annihilation is inevitable.

Gaining perspective can stop it. Overcoming tribal instincts. Thinking pragmatically long term, not emotionally in the moment.

Go ahead and “Stand By…” your side. Go ahead and cite reasons you’re right. Just realilze that it’s only going to make things worse.