Most People are Wrong about Most Things Most of the Time
On the dangers of following advice & not trusting one’s own instincts
Striving to accomplish our goals, we interact with three kinds of people: 1) those who ignore us, and neither help nor hurt us; 2) those who compete with us or are jealous of us, and hurt us; and 3) those who believe that our success will in some way benefit them, and help us (or at the very least stay out of our way). Such an analysis sounds crass, but it’s true.
Since the vast majority are 1) or 2), any advice we receive must be suspect. The first group, devoid of intent, are “just talking,” and might or might not share a random kernel of wisdom, but usually not. Sensing their neutrality, the temptation might be strong to solicit their “objective” advice, yet since they de facto have no vested interest, their value is as low as their stakes.
As is their knowledge and experience of what we do, especially if we’re trying to win them over. Whatever our goal, our success is contingent on getting other people to do things: click, tap, buy, vote, read, believe… The illusion is strong that advice from the intended audience or end-user is effective for learning how to convince them. But how would they know?
The second kind of person is far more insidious, and where the biggest dangers lie. Whether they are seeking a similar goal, or want to make it happen yet don’t have the guts to even try, their common interest and enthusiasm are traps. We seek camaraderie and companionship, especially when mastering a skill, or launching a career, is so lonely and difficult.
Sharing vulnerabilities can be therapeutic, but is ripe for exploitation. If they are competing, then believing that our success and theirs is a zero sum game becomes irresistible, and they will do whatever it takes to defeat us. If they are jealous, their motivation isn’t to win by us losing, but to feel better by us losing. Both types seek weaknesses, and try to destroy us.
That said, listening to 1) or 2) is usually a bad idea — but so is even the best intentioned advice from the third category. Although their encouragement and support feels like altruism, pragmatism and most often opportunism are actually at play. While a jealous competitor will manipulate us to fail, an eager ally will manipulate us to succeed. We’re still being manipulated.
As the cliche goes, those who can’t, teach — and those who can’t teach, give advice. Neither instructional nor prescriptive, advice from 3) is well meaning but usually meaningless. Much like the hapless 1) we query for market research, they have no idea what it takes to succeed, because if they did, then they’d be trying to do what we’re doing, asking for our advice.
Compounding such confusion is the inescapable reality that not only is most advice bad, but most people don’t know what they’re talking about. Read the news, follow the stock market. Evolving as tribal creatures, humans instinctively follow, not lead. Beliefs and behaviors therefore have little to do with the “truth,” or even what’s ultimately best for everyone.
Sliced and diced this way, it becomes self-evident why trusting our own instincts is vital, especially if we break from the pack to become successful on our own terms, doing our own thing. Our inner spark, our hunch, our intuition is what got us going in the first place, and remaining true to that vision is the only infallible, unyielding guide we can possibly rely on.
Only after we’ve proven ourselves to ourselves through relentless determation and hard work will someone with truly good advice bother to offer it. When the go-getter is ready, the partner will appear — in the form of an investor, an agent, a producer, a capable 3) who actually has the proven expertise to not merely give advice, but make our vision a reality.
