More Sound Than Fury
The Iranian drone attack today was all show — the Israeli re-retaliation will be for real
The Iranian attack today was entirely for show. Tehran launched “hundreds of drones,” knowing advance warning and the Iron Dome system would take out most if not all of them, doing minimal damage.
Rationale: Iran doesn’t want war, but they had to do something to not look weak in reaction to the Damascus embassy assassinations. And they had to do it directly, without the use of their Hezbollah and Houthi proxies.
Prediction: Israel will capitalize on this direct attack to directly attack Iran — only with the IDFs usual 100x retaliatory strategy. Israel will hit Iran for real, and hit them very hard, very soon, on multiple fronts.
Rationale: Netanyahu does want a wider war. He personally needs continued conflict to stay in power, and his extremist government wants pretext to expand the Gaza War into southern Lebanon to neutralize Hezbollah.
Despite the horrors of Gaza, the real threat to Israel isn’t Hamas, nor has it ever been. The existential threat to Israel is Iran’s nuclear program, which escalation into a multifront war could delay. They’re just getting started…
