Message for the IDF

There’s still time. Don’t do it. Don’t invade Gaza.

Dear IDF:

Inhale. Exhale. Think. Don’t invade Gaza.

Learn from the Germans in Stalingrad: They bombed the hell out of that city first, hoping to weaken the Soviet army there before invading. The strategy had the opposite effect, and gave Russian soldiers cover to slowly and methodically destroy the invading German army in grueling urban warfare, exacerbated by first turning the city into rubble, giving the defenders an advantage.

Understand that it’s 2023, and not 1973: Your enemies are not only on multiple fronts, but they have hundreds of thousands of missiles, tens of thousands of boots on the ground, and are backed by Iran, Turkey, and other major players. If you trigger them, and they attack, the threat this time will truly be existential, Tel Aviv and Haifa will be struck, and not even the US has the power to intervene to save you.

You won’t be able to “destroy Hamas”: Even if you went building-to-building, floor-to-floor, room-to-room, tunnel-to-tunnel, you can’t eliminate all your enemies, who are dispersed across 140 square miles and within a mostly sympathetic population of 2.5 million. And while you try and fail, you’ll further enrage and motivate generations of Palestinians to host and empower their successors, who will be worse.

Remember the invasion of Lebanon in 1982? Sure, you got rid of Arafat and the PLO from the country — but all that accomplished long term was the rise of Hezbollah. Think about it: every time you’ve “mowed the lawn” with intermediate actions the next cycle of violence is only more extreme; and every time you’ve sought complete elimination of your adversary they spawn an even worse next generation.

Your Israeli “brand” needs a redo: For decades, you’ve maintained an effective reputation for resilience, toughness, and invincibility, but for all the reasons above those days are over. Known for taking a hit and reacting 10x with maximum force, tenacity, and lethality, you instead might want to follow Ukraine’s lead, and nurture the world’s compassion before you ask for their support.

Your own society is in turmoil: Netanyahu is no Zelinsky, and Israel isn’t the upstart, swashbuckling, ramshackle, indefatigable, and undefeated country it was decades ago. Instead, Israel has an entirely new set of challenges, not the least of which is its own polarized, fragmented society, its own authoritarian threats to democracy, and now the imminent risk of escalation into a catastrophic situation.

It doesn’t have to be this way: Don’t do it. Don’t invade. And chill out with the mass bombings. Continue pinpoint assassination-hits of senior leadership, and stabilize your borders. And maybe, just maybe, start talking again to the people who ostensibly want you destroyed. It might actually get useful results. You might not like dealing with, God forbid negotiating with your mortal enemies, but you’ve got no choice.

Regards,

A Bald Guy in NYC

P.S. Don’t do it. Don’t invade Gaza.