Israel, if Existentially Threatened, Will Nuke Lebanon

Skirmishes with Hezbollah on the northern border are escalating precariously

As the war against Hamas in Gaza rages, battles against Hezbollah in Lebanon spark. Fears of a multifront, multicountry conflict were assuaged in early November when Syed Hassan Nasrallah threatened Israel, but fell short of formally declaring war — no doubt told to stand down by Iran, in turn influenced by China and its need for uninterrupted Middle East oil.

Despite that official cool down, the Lebanese border remains red hot, IDF and US forces in a state of continuous engagement. Tens of thousands of Northern Israelis remain evacuated, a situation deemed unsustainable. Pressure is building on Israel to take decisive action against Hezbollah to stabilize the region, and as many insist, finally get rid of Hezbollah, too.

That decisive objective is already being applied to Hamas, of course, so far with tangible military wins, but at extreme humanitarian costs to the Palestinian civilian population. As Israel loses the information war, global anti-Israel/anti-US and antisemitic sentiment at record levels, the Gaza endgame remains ambiguous, as does what constitutes Israeli “victory”.

If Gaza isn’t bad enough, full throttle war along the Lebanese border could prove catastrophic. Armed with over 100,000 precision-guided rockets, Hezbollah can rain fire on Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Rishon, killing thousands and inflicting billions in damage. Key IDF installations are also vulnerable, in toto creating what would no doubt be preceived as a genuine existential threat for Israel, precipitating their typically disproportionate response.

Nuclear weapons have not been used against an adversary since the United States destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki, forcing Japanese unconditional surrender and ending WWII. The genie has been kept in the bottle since, almost miraculous given the Cuban Missile Crisis, various Super Power proxy conflicts, and a series of near-miss accidents, many still classified. The Doomsday Clock is now at 90 seconds to midnight, closest ever set.

The principle of “Mutual Assured Destruction” (MAD) has been the bedrock of nuclear strategy since the Cold War began. The approach has so far precluded global annihilation, with Super Powers stockpiling enough warheads to bring our species to extinction. Major powers have sufficient convention power to protect themselves. but small countries with high vulnerabilities and limited arsenals are forced to play a different war game.

Israel’s nuclear arsenal is the world’s worst kept secret, no need even for a citation link. That said, Israel’s strategy of responding to aggression with 100x force strength suggests that the only sufficient fire power against tens of thousands of precision-guided missiles striking Israeli cities and military bases is for the IDF to nuke Hezbollah in Lebanon. As shocking as that sounds, the genie will likely be finally let out of her bottle in this scenario.

The Ukraine War was hopeless from the beginning, stalemate inevitable. The world’s attention now back on the Middle East, and the American GOPs isolationism in full swing, Zelensky’s loss is being accelerated. The ironic lesson learned is for a country to never give up their nuclear weapons. The flipside of that truism is that when pushed into a life threatening corner, a tiny country like Israel that has nukes will have no choice but to use them.

I was sadly right about Ukraine, and for everyone’s sake hope I’m wrong about Israel. One thing is certain: as the Doomsday Clock alerts us, the threat of nuclear weapons again being used on the battlefield has never been higher. The threat of escalation is also ominous, because once that sinistral spirit is out of the bottle, nuke-armed tyrants like Putin will be all the more tempted to use them. For now, let’s hope Israel chills. Tick, tock…