Hamas High-Fives the Hostages
Why the next phase of the Israel-Hamas War will be even worse
Feeling thankful and relieved about the hostage release over the past few days is understandable. We’re of course glad for them and their families, but the negotiations came at a price far beyond the ceasefire.
“Operation Al Aqsa Storm” is a textbook example of asymmetrical warfare. Unable to ever win militarily, Hamas’ knew they could instead win in the theatre of global public opinion.
So they attacked Israel with intensity and savagery of a magnitude that would trigger the IDF into killing thousands of Palestinian civilians, their deaths livestreamed across the planet.
Hamas knew Israel would react as they always have, with 1,000x destructive power and vengeance. Israel has since of course relentlessly bombed Gaza, and lay siege with over forty thousand troops.
The results are exactly as predicted — by Hamas: the Israel-Saudi security deal has been halted, Palestinians again front page news, while millions protest against Israel/US, antisemitism at record levels.
Salt in the Israeli wound has been the 250 or so hostages. Their release has been fraught with drama and uncertainty, compounded by Netanyahu vowing to utterly destroy Hamas.
The logic of hostage negotiations is twisted when the invader vows to kill every last one of the hostage takers, and the hostage takers have vowed to not stop until the invaders are destroyed, too.
With more hostages to spare, and the chance to demonstrate their “compassion” to the world, Hamas has released three dozen women and children, in exchange for their own prisoners and a ceasefire.
Media coverage is contradictory, often conciliatory. We’re shown photos of Hamas militants high-fiving the kids whose parents they killed. Gaza’s theocratic mafia is shown to be “peace loving”.
Israel feels manipulated, as well they should be. Their humiliation will be thrown back at Hamas with characteristic 1,000x vengeance, further fueling the Gaza bloodshed.
The next phase of the Israel-Hamas War will be as sadly predictable as the first: Soon as the ceasefire ends, the IDF will resume bombing, and the siege will also continue, moving into the South.
Israel will not stop until Hamas as an organized military and governing group will be, as Netanyahu promised, “destroyed”. That will only happen after tens of thousands more Palestinians die.
Rebuilding Gaza is Israel’s only way out of this mess. But they’ll have to do it on the cinders of dead civilians, and within a hornet’s nest of ongoing insurgency. Who will govern Gaza is another mystery.
For now, despite their encirclement and military degradation, Hamas is winning. The continued hostage drama is yet another feather in their asymmetrical warfare cap.
Thanks to the lull in fighting, Israel has a chance to recalibrate their strategy. They won’t. They’ll resume with a renewed cycle of violence and suffering, more furious and ferocious than the last.
In Israel they’re gearing up for a war they know will last at least another year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Netanyahu politically survives, along with Hamas. They have been bedfellows all along.
