Hamas has Already Won: The Palestinians are Again Central to Middle East Peace
Without a clear path to a two-state solution the region will continue to burn
The express purpose of Hamas’ October 7th attack against Israel — without precedent in scope and savagery — was to trigger the IDF to respond as they always have, and retaliate with 100x ferocity. That’s exactly what they have done, bombing and invading Gaza, resulting in over 85% of the habitable territory destroyed, and over 1% of the population killed.
Weaker militarily, Hamas relied on the well-proven strategy of asymmetrical warfare, which dictates that a disadvantaged force wins by simply not losing, while a more powerful army loses if it doesn’t win. In other words, Hamas forced Israel into launching an unwinnable war in Gaza, the Palestinians already winning by igniting global sympathy.
The facts speak for themselves: On October 6th, Israel and Saudi Arabia were on the brink of a new security deal, one negotiated with zero Palestinian involvement, and almost as much benefit; “the Middle East is quieter today than it has been in two decades,” announced Biden’s national security advisor just two weeks before; eyes instead on Ukraine and Asia.
Within 24 hours, the world’s attention fixated on the forgotten Palestinians, predictably growing into global anti-Israeli, anti-US, and antisemitic fervor as TikTok and Instagam feeds swelled with images of dead and dying Palestinian civilians. Even US reaction has been visceral to the point Biden’s own Democrats are threatening to not support him in November.
In terms of policy and dynamics on the ground, the Saudi-Israeli security deal is indefinitely on hold, while the Houthis and Hezbollah, via Iran, have capitalized on the raging Gaza conflict to attack along the Lebanese border, and disrupt Red Sea shipping lanes to the point of triggering US and British military action. So much for Blinken’s “quiet in the Mddle East”.
The ironic and tragic paradox of Netanyahu approving suitcases full of Qatari money to create a hedge between rival Palestinian factions, coupled with shifting IDF force strength from the Gaza border to protect illegal West Bank settlements, is an apropos backdrop to the self-destructive disaster that is the IDF bombing and invasion of Gaza since October 7th.
Hamas set an obvious trap, and Israel leaped headlong into it, stoked by bloodlust and extreme Right Wing Israeli leadership. Israel certainly has the “right to defend itself,” but lost in the highly charged, mostly emotional response has been the creativity and compassion necessary to transform IDF strategy from brute force 100x retaliation to a smarter, long term fix.
Four months later, and despite the bombing of Gaza to an extent exceeding the pummeling of German cities during WWII, Hamas retains most of their force strength. Not only does the IDF goal of “destroying Hamas” seem more elusive and unattainable than ever, and over 100 hostages remain in captivity, but a brewing insurgency and expanding war seem most likely.
No end in sight, and further escalation the only probable outcome, Hamas’ goal is forced back on the table: serious consideration of a two-state solution. Although Islamist and vowing Israel’s destruction, Hamas’ next best thing is repaving a road to Palestinian Statehood, ostensibly with them at the helm. Regardless, no one doubts they have succeeded in principle.
What can and should Israel do? Clearly what it so far has not: Get rid of Netanyahu, stop pummeling Gaza, then clean up its own hosue by refortifying borders, and quelling the West Bank by ceasing illegal settlements. The long road ahead is as inevitable as it seems impossible, but demands sacrifice, compassion, and practicality from both sides.
In lieu of taking these steps, the Gaza war will morph into a protracted and hopeless insurgency, and the region will remain on the brink of all-out war for months, maybe years. Iran the opportunist continues to benefit the most from Big Power strategic mistakes, from the US invasion of Iraq to the more recent and equally tragic and mistaken Israeli invasion of Gaza.
What can and should the US do? Clearly what it so far has not: Put conditions on what has historically been unconditional aid to Israel, and come down hard on Netanyahu and his obvious military and domestic failures. Fearful that “Israel will go it alone” if they have to, we should nonetheless exert the influence that is ours — or let them go it alone.
Regardless what this administration does or does not do, the US electorate is shifting, and with it their attitudes toward Israel. On the firing line for generations, change likely won’t come from Jerusalem, while American harbingers are already evident on the streets of New York City and LA. The only eternal state is change, and Israel will have no choice but to evolve.
