Gaza is the New Stalingrad
Why the IDF bombing is not only brutal but bad strategy
Regardless why the inevitable Israeli invasion of Gaza is delayed, the pummeling of the strip from the air seems to at least this Armchair General to be an enormous strategic mistake.
Ironically enough, the German carpet bombing of Stalingrad comes to mind, an analogous historical case study. The Wermacht intent then, same as the IDFs now, was to “soften” the city’s defenses.
As military leaders from Viet Nam to Sri Lanka have learned the hard way, you can bomb the hell out of an entrenched defending force, but to limited effect. They know their own turf, they hide and wait.
Worse, the mountains of rubble and debris resulting from heavy bombardments act as ideal cover for the same defendants you unsuccessfully tried to weaken with those initial attacks.
Everyone knows Hamas’ focus on building underground fortifications and tunnels, notoriously at the expense of hospitals, schools, and other vital civilian infrastructure. They are burrowed in deeply.
Israel is relentlessly bombing the hell out of Gaza, thousands of sortes and artillery shells destroying enormous swaths of the world’s largest open air prison, creating a Stalingrad-like hellscape.
The human cost has already been tremendous, allegedly more than 4,000 Palestinian civilians killed, countless more wounded and displaced. The PR has been terrible, the dead and dying live streamed.
Given what history teaches, the impact on Hamas has likely been minimal. Conversely, the transformation of Gaza from a tight urban sprawl to a wasteland ideal for defending from an invading army is epic.
The Israelis will probably blast their way in at first, a multifaceted, tightly coordinated blitzkrieg involving bulldozers to clear the way, airpower and drones to bomb and surveil, infantry to seize land.
The nonstop bombing and artillery onslaught might have cleared some of the way forward for them, but has also created a no man’s land perfect for snipers, traps, and urban guerrilla resistance.
And like the Wermacht in Stalingrad, once the IDF enters they will become embroiled. Fighting will degenerate into man-to-man combat, exacerbated in its brutality by the nightmare topography.
The imminent and inevitable quagmire, and the civilian suffering it engenders, will be televised, further inflaming the already enraged Arab world, heightening the risk of multifront escalation.
Lastly, the IDFs decisions to first bomb the hell out of Gaza and then invade were not only predictable, but intended. The whole point of “Operation Al Aqsa Storm” was to trigger the Israelis.
Of course Hamas knew how Israel would respond, especially after they went full-ISIS in savagery. That’s exactly what Netanyahu missed: “deterrence” doesn’t work against people who want chaos.
The larger goal for Iran was to short circuit the looming Saudi/Israel security deal, and get the plight of the Palestinians back on the Middle East map, which had essentially forgotten about them for years.
So far so good for Hamas and Iran — and Russia, China, and North Korea, for that matter. And so far so bad for Israel and the US — who are now taking Hamas’ bait and plummeting into a larger conflict.
Instead, again supported by history, the Israelis might be better served by not blasting the shit out of Gaza before they invade. Intact structures offer less cover, less opportunities to kill invaders.
Also supported by history, the Israelis might be better served by not invading at all. Able to kick the can down the road for decades thanks to their reputation for invincibility, Israel is invincible no more.
“Mowing the lawn” of terrorists every few years, reaffirming their own version of stalemate and equilibrium with the Palestinians and the entire region through force simply won’t work after October 7th.
Israel needs a whole new approach, and a whole new “brand”. Netanyahu, more so than any other single decision-maker, has put Israel into this intractable situation. Not surprisingly, he’s leading the charge.
For now, Israel is behind him. With more than 1,300 of their fellow citizens gunned down, gang raped, beheaded, burned alive, and tortured in front of their own children, with hundreds abducted, they want blood.
They’re certainly getting it, and they’ll certainly get more of it. The question here, though, is the military strategy of “softening” Gaza with such a torrent of airstrikes actually in their best interests?
And even if Hamas is physically destroyed, the forces that created them, sustained them, and empowered them will only be exacerbated by Israel’s unabashed collateral damage of Palestinians.
What should Israel do? Well, this Armchair Negotiator thinks a good start might be to stop building settlements, stop supporting Hamas against the Palestinian Authority, start taking the Palestinians seriously again.
Taking a few more steps back, if you look at charts revealing the demographic future of the region, Israel will be dominated by ultra-Orthodox extremists, and Palestinian radicals.
So if you think the situation is bad now, just wait until the population of Gaza and Palestinians in the West Bank triples in size, Hezbollah acquires a hundred thousand more rockets, and Iran nukes up.
For now, even if you think invading is the right thing to do, bombing the hell out of Gaza first, thousands of Palestinian civilian casualities notwistanding, seems like a bad idea that will soon backfire.
And the reason that is such a pivotal mistake is because a long, drawn out urban guerrilla war in Gaza, akin to Stalingrad, will become the live streamed meatgrinder perfect for igniting WWIII.
#yourewelcome #haveaniceday
