Every Hostage Released is a Win for Hamas
The tortuous logic of hostage negotiations is a lose-lose for Israel, at this point having no choice
The hostage releases are absolutely wonderful news for the hostages and their families, and as such cause for celebration.
Yet these posts are painfully bitter sweet, as every hostage freed is also an enormous win for Hamas:
- Every hour of ceasefire enables Hamas to better regroup, translating into more dead and wounded IDF soldiers to come. Thousands of Hamas militants are already assimilating into the civilian population of the South, gearing up for prolonged urban guerrilla warfare.
- Every hostage freed builds the perception that Hamas is humane and reasonable, a “peace loving” group. Not surprisingly, all the hostages released are in good shape considering their ordeal. That creates the false illusion the rest of them are, too.
- Every Palestinian hostage freed builds the perception that Hamas is also a viable leader for Palestinians in the West Bank. Uprisings have already increased in these hot spots, the bad situation even worse with violence against and from Jewish settlers.
- The hostage releases further drives a wedge between Biden and Netanyahu, whose political careers are on the line. The US has been calling for negotiations and better military targeting to avoid more Palestinian casualties, their schism worsening.
- When the relentless IDF bombing, siege, and urban combat soon start agtain, global Israeli opinion will further sink. Hamas was humane to release the hostages, right? Peace was revealed to be possible, right? No, watch the Israeli onslaught resume with fury.
Fighting a classic assymetrical war, Hamas’ goal was never military victory, instead the conquest of world sympathy to get Palestine front and center.
So far Hamas has attained their goal, beyond their wildest expectations. Despite their encirclement and losses, Hamas continues to win.
From the start they wanted Israel to relentlessly bomb and invade, kill as many Palestinian civilians as possible.
On October 7th they deliberately went full-ISIS in their savagery to ensure a 1,000x as savage Israeli response, which Israel has done.
Every dead Israeli and IDF soldier is a win for Hamas. Every dead Palestinian civilian is also a win for Hamas.
And all this hostage drama is icing on Hamas’ victory cake, further enhanced by Israel knowing Hamas still holds the cards.
The hostage drama has even split Israeli society, creating a political and social fissure superseding military resistance to a ceasefire.
The result: Israel’s humiliation will fuel the next phase of this tragic war, the IDF doubling- and tripling-down despite US warnings.
Meanwhile, another 150 hostages remain in captivity. Perhaps further negotiations will happen in stages.
But the chance of freeing all of them is certainly zero. Why would Hamas give up their only leverage?
Especially if the Netanyahu government has announced that the IDF’s mission is Hamas’ total destruction?
Any illusion that this week’s ceasefire will herald a permanent cessation of hostilities and peace is ill-founded.
Instead a much nastier and extended street-to-street and room-to-room conflict will soon ignite in the South.
True to form, still working their so far successful playbook, Hamas’ will be beckoning the IDF: “Bring it on…”
And the IDF, hardly tempered by their US ally, will yet again vengefully and zealously take Hamas’ bait.
