Before & After: Why Hamas is Winning the War Against Israel

The theocratic mafia of Gaza has successfully used basic asymmetrical warfare strategies to so far dominate

State of the Middle East and the World before Hamas’ Operation Al Aqsa Storm on October 7th, 2023:

• Israel and Saudi Arabia were on the brink of an unprecedented and expansive security deal. The details essentially marginalized the Palestinians, who had no say in it, and included among a host of provisos for a nuclear facility to be built in the Kingdom.
• Illegal West Bank settlements continued being built, with clashes between Israel settlers and Palestinians on the rise. The violence was on a level that mandated an IDF force strength of 32 : 1 compared to protection of Israel’s southern border around Gaza.
• Netanyahu was taking advantage of the rivalry between Hamas in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. Their discord precluded movement toward a Two State Solution, so much so that Israel no longer considered Hamas a pressing threat.
• Hamas was playing nice with Israel, with a significant reduction in attacks and rocket launches, and increase in trade. Understanding Netanyahu’s game, Hamas played into it, reinforcing the erroneous belief that they were content with the status quo and wanted peace.
• Pundits and the public throughout the world felt the Middle East had stabilized, and the Palestinians were irrelevant. Netanyahu and Trump’s belief that the Palestinians could be circumvented in the peace process was proven by the Abraham Accords.
• Anti-Israeli, US, and Jewish sentiments had fallen throughout the world, distracted by other news and ongoing conflicts. With the Ukraine War raging and numerous other concerns and distractions, the Palestinian cause was all but forgotten on the world’s stage.
• Russia, Iran, and China were struggling with their economies and gaining hegemony throughout the world. The Ukraine War raging, the Israel-Saudi and Abraham Accords in play, Beijing housing busting, America and NATOs enemy/frenemies had their challenges.

State of the Middle East and the World after Hamas Operation Al Aqsa Storm on October 7th, 2023:

• Israel and Saudi Arabia security deal has been halted, with relations between Israel and its Arab allies strained. The bombing and invasion of Gaza have resulted in Palestinian death and destruction on a massive scale, incinerating the thawing of Israel/Arab deals.
• The West Bank is roiling with violence between settlers and Palestinians, embroiling the IDF. The conflict is now so bad that Israel must consider it another front in a war already being waged against Hamas in Gaza, with no resolution in sight.
• Hamas and the Palestinian Authority are now seen as a united front against Israel. Thousands of dead and a million displaced in Gaza enrage West Bank Arabs, while the released Palestinian hostages further enhance the solidarity between former rivals.
• Hamas ‘ peaceful bluff caught Israel off guard, and their ISIS-level savagery ensured an Israeli over-reaction. Playing Israel every step of the way, Hamas did what it did to ensure Israel would kill as many Palestinians as possible, and shift global opinion.
• The Palestinian Cause is now front page news and a topline concern for the public and politicans throughout the world. Thanks to the shocking scale of the livestreamed Palestinian death and destruction, Hamas is seen as liberators, Israel as the oppressors.
• Anti-Israeli, US, and Jewish sentiments are exploding throughout the planet. Millions participate in “Liberate Palestine” protests, the Two State Solution is now Priority #1, while anti-American and antisemitic vitriol and violence have risen to record levels.
• Russia, Iran, and China are high-fiving as the region descends into turmoil and US/Israel relations strain. Putin now revels in the attention taken from Ukraine, the Mullahs have avoided all-out war but reep the benefits of a multifront conflict, and Xi sees America weakened.

Perception is Reality

The essence of Hamas’ victory over Israel so far rests in their David vs Goliath ability to utilitize basic strategies of asymmetrical warfare to gain and sustain advantage.

Hamas understands — as the Viet Cong did after the Tet Offensive, and the Taliban did throughout the Afghanistan disaster — that winning the Information War is more vital than any victories on the ground.

Enveloped within the Fog of War, and an understandable blood lust after 1,200 of their citizens were massacred, tortured, raped, and kidnapped, Israel is hitting Hamas and Gaza hard.

Operating from a playbook decades old, Israel has never cared about the world’s “public opinion,” assuming the Jewish State and Jews are hated anyway, regardless what they do or don’t do.

Israel has also believed and survived on the notion that the only action understood in that region is raw strength: Enemies hit Israel, and Israel hits back by a factor of 1,000 fold.

But the Middle East has changed since 1948, 1973, and after the two intifadas: Iran’s proxies have exponentially gained in power, and social media now showcases every dead Palestinian child.

Central to Hamas’ success is the simple reality that every dead IDF soldier benefits Hamas, while every dead Palestinian civilian benefits Hamas 100x more — and it’s all unfolding in real time on TikTok.

So the old Israel playbook is no longer working, and nobody is happier about that than Hamas. Anticipating Israel’s every move, they knew Israel would act as it always had.

Israel has done exactly that, with the net-negative results as outlined point-for-point above. Hamas is losing militarily on the ground, but they are winning in the court of global public opinion.

And that global public opinion now matters. President Biden is under tremendous pressure within his own party to reign in the IDF, creating its own schism and bonus points for Hamas.

Most significantly, demands for a Two State Solution are now front and center throughout the planet, when on October 6th the idea of a Palestinian Homeland seemed long forgotten.

The hostage-induced ceasefire will soon be over, and with it a ferocious next phase in Gaza bloodshed. The US is putting pressure on Israel to calm down, but restraint seems unlikely.

Regrouping in the South of Gaza and assimilating into the Palestinian civilian population, Hamas beckons the IDF to follow them into a year-long guerrila war — and Israel will do exactly that.

The basic truism of warfare holds: “Try not to do what your enemy expects you to do.” Sadly, Israel has done exactly what Hamas expected them to do, and with equally predictable results.